So, how do Policing Statistics work?

Metropolitan Police Sign

I know I posted a previous note on the curious measures being handed down to police forces to “reduce crime”. While the police may be able to influence it slightly, in the final analysis they only have direct control over one part of the value chain – that of producing the related statistics (I really don’t think they commit all the crimes on which they are measured!). The much longer post was this: http://www.ianwaring.com/2014/04/05/police-metrics-and-the-missing-comedy-of-the-red-beads/

I’ve just had one of my occasional visits back to “Plumpergeddon” – not recommended in work environments for reasons that will become apparent later – which documents the ebbs and flows of the legal process following a mugging and theft (of a MacBook and a wallet containing a debit card) in London in November 2011. It is, to put it mildly, a shocking story.

The victim of the crime – and owner of the MacBook – had installed a piece of software on his machine that – once he’d enabled a tick box on an associated web site – started to “phone home” at regular intervals. Taking pictures of the person using the computer, shots of what was on the screen at the same time, and both tagged with it’s exact geographic location. He ended up with over 6,000 pictures, including some which showed sale of goods on eBay that matched purchases made on his stolen credit cards.

I’m not sure exactly how the flow of incidents get rolled up into the crime statistics that the Met publish, but having done a quick trawl through the Plumpergeddon Blog, starting at the first post here and (warning: ever more NSFW as the story unfolds, given what the user started paying for and viewing!) moving up to the current status 29 pages later, the count looks like:

  • 1 count of mugging
  • 1 theft of a MacBook Pro Personal Computer, plus Wallet containing Company Debit Card
  • 2 counts of obtaining money (from a cashpoint with a stolen card) by deception
  • 9 counts of obtaining goods (using a stolen debit card, using a PIN) by deception
  • 2 counts of obtaining goods (using a stolen debit card, signing for them) by deception
  • 11 counts of demonstrably selling stolen goods

So, I make that 26 individual crime incidents.

The automated data collection started off within 4 weeks of the theft phoning home (it took one shot of the user, a screenshot and reported location and connection details every 10 minutes of active use). He ended up assembling circa 6,000 pieces of evidence (including screenshots of the person using his MacBook, and screenshots documenting the disposal of the goods purchased with the stolen card using three separate accounts on eBay). All preserved with details of the physical location of the MacBook and the details of the WiFi network it was connected to.

Many ebbs and flows along the way, but the long and short of it was that the case was formally dropped “for lack of evidence”. This was then followed by a brief piece of interest when some media activity started picking up, but it then sort of ebbed away again. In May 2013, news came back as The case file is back with the officer, and the case is closed pending further leads.”

Four weeks ago, the update said:

I Am No Longer the Victim. Apparently. I was told last night in a police station by a Detective Constable that because the £7,000 I was defrauded of was returned by my bank after 3-4 weeks, and the laptop was replaced by my insurance company after 4 months, I am no longer considered the victim for either of those crimes. I was told that my bank and insurance company are now the victims.

I assume this must mean that when a victim of an assault receives compensation, the attackers subsequently go free? Any UK based lawyers, police or other legal types care to shed some light on this obscure logic?

Cynical little me suspects i’m being told this because the police don’t want to pursue charges over those crimes, even though (as most readers will know and as I said in my previous post) I’ve done practically all the legwork for them.

I must admit to be completely appalled that a case like this. Given the amount of evidence submitted, it should have solved a string of fraudulent transactions and matching/associated Sale of Stolen Goods, that could have incremented the Metropolitan Police “crimes solved” counter like  jackpot machine. 26 crimes solved with all the evidence collecting leg work already done for them.

So, where does this case sit on the Metropolitan Police Statistics? Does it count as all 26 incidents “solved” because the insurance company have paid out and the debit card company have reversed the fraudulent transactions?And above all, is the Home Secretary really satisfied that she’s seeing an appropriate action under her “reducing crime” objective here??

The guy is still free and on the streets without any intervention since the day the crimes were committed. Free to become the sort of one-man crime wave that Bill Bratton managed to systematically get off the streets in New York during his first tenure as Police Chief there (I recall from his book The Turnaround that 70 individuals in custody completely changed the complexion of life in that City). Big effect when you can systematically follow up to root causes, as he did then.

However, back in London, I wonder how this string of events are mapped onto the crime statistics being widely published and cited. Any ideas?

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